In each of the past several years I’ve participated in a mock draft on a certain website. I selected Desmond Bane and Paul Reed for the Mavs last year, Nic Claxton and Talen Horton-Tucker for the Wizards the year before, and Miles Bridges and De’Anthony Melton for the Nuggets the year before that, while also making some minor trades and other second round picks.
This year I dialed up my efforts as GM of the Pelicans, in an attempt to reshape the roster around Zion and build a contender in the near future. Here are the results:
Net Gains: Damian Lillard, Robert Covington, Chris Boucher, Eric Gordon, Isaiah Jackson (#23), Kessler Edwards (#24). Also drafted Aaron Henry (#35) and McKinley Wright IV (#53) with previously existing picks.
Net Losses: Brandon Ingram, Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe, #10, #40, #43, LAL 2022 1st rounder, NOP 1st rounders in 2023, 2025, and 2027, NOP 2022 2nd rounder
Following a disappointing season in which they went 31-41 and failed to qualify for the play-in, the Pelicans entered the summer with a talented though awkward-fitting roster and a stockpile of future picks from the Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday trades.
By the end of my mock draft, they’d added Damian Lillard—one of the league’s top offensive engines and a guy who complements Zion just about as well as possible on that end of the floor—plus three more veterans to further surround Zion with outside shooting. Covington and Boucher should also improve the frontcourt defense, which was a glaring weakness last year.
In the draft itself, the Pelicans added three defensive-minded prospects with differing skillsets: Isaiah Jackson (rim protection + finishing), Kessler Edwards (versatility + shooting), and Aaron Henry (point-of-attack defense + secondary creation). I see reasonable paths to each of them having very productive NBA careers. Finally, near the end of the draft I grabbed McKinley Wright, a developmental point guard on a two-way contract.
More details below.
The Trades
Embed from Getty ImagesLast year’s starting lineup of Bledsoe, Lonzo, Ingram, Zion, & Adams was a questionable fit on both ends. Despite lofty expectations, it outscored opponents by just 2 points per 100 possessions. On defense, a lack of quickness and activity, especially in the frontcourt, resulted in conceding far too many open looks. The Pelicans ranked 22nd defensively and were substantially worse with the starters on the floor.
Offensively the team was above average, though not to the extent you might expect with Zion shooting over 60%, another All-Star in Ingram, and the Pelicans leading the league in offensive rebounding. Ingram has indeed become an outstanding mid-range scorer, but his style of play doesn’t tend to create the best scoring opportunities for others, particularly in a lineup lacking outside shooting. New Orleans finished near the bottom of the league in both 3-point attempts and 3P%, making Zion’s staggering interior efficiency all the more remarkable given the poor spacing around him.
My plan for the offseason was to build a much more cohesive roster around Zion, starting with a more complementary 2nd star than Ingram.
My #1 target was Damian Lillard, an elite outside shooter and playmaker who could help Zion become an even more dominant interior threat. The Blazers weren’t interested in Ingram, however, indicating that they preferred top draft picks.
That brings me to the first trade:
- NOP gets #2, #23, #24, Eric Gordon
- HOU gets Ingram, #35, Lakers 2022 1st rounder (top 4 protected)
This was essentially the #2 pick for Ingram. The Rockets didn’t have enough cap space for that, and I was able to snag another 1st rounder by taking back Eric Gordon, whose 2 years and $38M left under contract is more than he’d get on the open market. Along with gaining the #2 pick, I moved up from #35 to #23. Finally, Houston preferred the uncertainty of the Lakers’ 2022 pick over keeping #24 this year, leaving me (at least temporarily) with 4 first rounders: #2, #10, #23, and #24.
A major side benefit of this deal is that it can be expanded to allow New Orleans to take on salary in an accompanying move. That’s because Brandon Ingram ($29.5M) can be traded for players earning roughly twice as much as Eric Gordon ($18.2M) under the salary-matching rules.
Using that to my advantage, I then reached a deal in principle with Portland, getting both Lillard and Robert Covington at the steep price of the #2 and #10 picks, 1st rounders in 2023, 2025, and 2027, Steven Adams, and Eric Bledsoe.
The Raptors also wanted in on the deal, and the 3-team trade ended up as follows:
This seems like exactly what the Blazers would have wanted in a Lillard deal, nabbing 2 of the top 4 picks in what many viewed as a 4-player draft at the top, while saving a bunch of money in the process. A rebuild centered on any two of Evan Mobley, Jalen Green, and Jalen Suggs is more exciting and an easier sell to the fanbase than trading Lillard for a fringe All-Star and uncertain future picks from a contender.
That 3-team deal wouldn’t work under the cap on its own, but it does in combination with the earlier Houston trade. Ingram, Bledsoe, and Adams account for nearly $65M in payroll this year, and they can collectively be traded for $81M under salary-matching principles. Lillard, Covington, Gordon, and Boucher together will earn just under $78M this year.
I then circled back with the Rockets, and we agreed to amend our initial deal by replacing the #35 pick with picks #43 and #46 (from Toronto). By submitting everything together as one massive, 4-team trade, the Pelicans could take on a bunch of salary and, at least in my opinion, drastically improve their roster.
Now that the trade mechanics and cap minutiae are out of the way, let’s talk about the fit.
Few players in the league have as much gravity as Damian Lillard or Zion Williamson, with Lillard drawing defenders away from the hoop and Zion making them collapse in on it.
Lillard is the league’s most prolific scorer outside 30 feet. No one made more 30-40 footers than Lillard last season (42), and over the past 3 years he’s made 110 such shots at 38% efficiency. Trae Young ranks second over that span with 89, followed by Steph with 62 and no one else above 25.
Meanwhile, Zion has established himself as the league’s most prolific scorer inside 3 feet. He was the only player in the league to make 500+ shots inside 3 feet last season, and his nearly 17 ppg around the rim were 20% more than Giannis and 50% more than anyone else.
Surrounding Zion with elite outside shooting should make him even more unstoppable. Last year the Blazers ranked 3rd in 3-point attempt rate and the Pelicans 3rd-from-the-bottom. The Blazers were 6th in 3P% and the Pelicans 26th. After replacing Ingram, Adams, and Bledsoe with Lillard, Covington, Boucher, and Gordon, New Orleans should vault up toward the top of the league in those areas. Gordon in particular is another guy who confounds opponents with his deep range, as he doesn’t hesitate to take shots several feet beyond the arc.
Boucher and Covington space the floor while also protecting the rim. Of all players who made at least 1.5 3s a game last year, they ranked #1 and #2 in blocks. That combination of skills—outside shooting and rim protection—is what earned Kristaps Porzingis the original “unicorn” designation, and it’s what has made Brook Lopez such an exceptional fit in Milwaukee alongside Giannis. Given the similarities between Giannis and Zion, Boucher and Covington should likewise be natural fits here.
And Boucher isn’t just a great rim protector for a 3-point shooter; he’s one of the league’s foremost shot-blockers overall. His 7.6% block percentage ranked 3rd in the league and was roughly 3.5x any of the Pelicans’ starters last year. Boucher’s extreme defensive activity is even more apparent from the fact that he ranked 5th in the league in shots contested per game, including 7th in contested 3-pointers per game. He doesn’t simply sink toward the basket to pile up blocks.
I was more surprised to see that Covington also rates well ahead of any Pelicans starter as a shot-blocker. That’s because blocking shots isn’t really Covington’s specialty. He’s more of an all-around plus defender, particularly in terms of his versatility, positioning, aggressive help, and quick hands. Along with the aforementioned blocks, Covington has ranked among the top 5 in steals each of the past 2 years, and last season he led the entire NBA in deflections, with 255. His defensive wizardry has made him a plus/minus standout throughout his career, and it’s something I chronicled in my Robert Covington scouting report back in 2015 (observations #4 and #5).
Lillard’s defensive limitations are well-known, and while I think Zion will continue to improve on that end, he isn’t the type of player to anchor a defense right now. That’s why I felt it was particularly important to bring in active help defenders like Covington and Boucher. It also contributed to me picking defense-first players in the draft, as I do think that fit matters to some extent in making those selections.
The Draft Picks
Embed from Getty ImagesIsaiah Jackson (#23)
Very bouncy, long, & mobile dive man and rim protector.
Jackson’s listed weaknesses are mostly positives in my view, e.g., that he was very aggressive and tried to force the issue on both ends, leading to some bad misses on self-created jumpers and runners, offensive fouls via charge and moving screens, and out-of-control closeouts and blocked-shot attempts. Kentucky was a dysfunctional mess with awful guard play. That Jackson relentlessly attempted to make up for his team’s shortcomings by creating much of his own offense and trying to be as disruptive as possible defensively should be points in his favor.
He’s the sort of player who typically gets downgraded as “raw” and a “project big man” but really isn’t. From Jackson’s identified weaknesses and the team context you’d think his numbers would be nothing special, but he was actually one of the most productive players in the SEC as a freshman, as well as Kentucky’s best player by a mile (30 PER and 63% TS in conference play, led the SEC in TRB%, BLK%, and DBPM).
As almost exclusively a finisher rather than a shot creator at the next level, he very well could be one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft class in terms of carving out a role and having a positive impact. His agility, motor, and leaping ability, including a staggeringly quick second jump, make him not only an imposing shot-blocker and offensive rebounder but also an inviting lob target and rim runner in transition.
Damian Lillard has talked about how much he’d like to play with a “super-athletic and mobile big man,” and while Zion obviously fits that description, Isaiah Jackson is also about as mobile and athletic a big man as you’ll ever find.
Kessler Edwards (#24)
Movement shooter with size and defensive versatility, which is a strong foundation to become a useful role player.
Some question whether his shot will hold up, given his unconventional form with a pronounced dip, forward lean, and split-legged landing, though he squares up to the target and it’s been repeatable and reliable (40% from downtown over the course of his 3 years at Pepperdine, on relatively high volume). His 88% shooting from the free throw line this year is also reassuring in that regard. Edwards shouldn’t be expected to create off the dribble, as his handle is weak and he moves mostly in a straight line aside from the occasional spin move. Fortunately, this team has enough shot creation to accommodate some dependent, catch-and-shoot players.
Edwards has the potential to be quite an effective and switchable defender. His long arms (8’10” standing reach) and excellent instincts/timing defensively allowed him to lead the WCC in blocks despite being 6’8” and not an explosive leaper. He can hang with most guards as well, with quick feet for his size and smart positioning. He’s not an especially flashy or aggressive individual defender but executes team concepts and puts himself in the right spots.
Also notable that he’s young for a junior. Edwards was 20 at draft time, like a few of the acclaimed freshmen (including Mobley and Jalen Green).
Embed from Getty ImagesAaron Henry (#35)
One of the best point-of-attack defenders in the draft, with size and strength to take on wings rather than just smaller guards. An outstanding mid-range floater paired with his craftiness and vision off the dribble gives him a chance to add value as a secondary creator. Cracking an NBA rotation is likely contingent on improving his subpar outside jumper. Its slow and out-of-balance form needs to be reworked. Henry should spend time in the G-League as a result, but I’d sign him to a multi-year deal.
I found this to be a very deep draft for wings, with little separation from the late lottery onward. That resulted in the first-round wings largely feeling like overdrafts and some really intriguing players going undrafted, Henry included. There were some rumblings of character concerns to account for his slide but no reports of any off-court issues and really nothing specific at all to back it up. He didn’t make the leap as a sophomore that many expected, yet last year as a junior he led the team in virtually every category as a point forward and defensive stopper.
He has much in common with Naji Marshall, another undrafted wing who found some success in New Orleans last year as a rookie.
McKinley Wright IV (#53)
Four-year starter at point guard (Colorado) known for competitiveness & positive attitude. Small but strong (6’0” with 6’5” wingspan, 192 pounds). Understands how to execute pick-and-roll, helping him to a nearly 3:1 AST/TO ratio last year. Not much of a scorer apart from a nice mid-range jumper and floater, just 33% from deep on middling volume for his career. An above-average defender in college with quick feet and tremendous effort, though limited by size. Should be a good practice player on a two-way contract, with the potential for some reserve minutes down the line.
The Free Agents
Embed from Getty ImagesThis really boils down to a single free agent: Lonzo Ball. Unlike the actual Pelicans, I am willing to pay whatever price is necessary to retain him. By my calculations, even after all the salary added in trade, the mock Pelicans can afford to pay Lonzo up to $26-27 million this year and stay under the luxury tax, which is $1-2M below his maximum salary and $7-8M above the offer sheet he signed with the Bulls.
I am higher on Lonzo than the consensus, even more so in the context of this mock Pelicans roster, but I’ll willingly acknowledge his flaws. Ball suffers from a version of Ben Simmons’s main issue: he’s not enough of a shooter/scorer off the dribble to be an optimal primary ball-handler in the half court. His assisted v. unassisted numbers are those of a wing, not a point guard.
Lonzo’s great as a distributor in transition or if he can get downhill against a scattered defense, but you can’t just run pick-and-roll with him, or give him the ball and clear out, and expect success. In other words, Lonzo is not an advantage creator like a Doncic, Trae Young, or even his brother LaMelo. He can’t bend a defense, beat his man off the dribble, or command a double team to generate openings for teammates in a half court set.
Although he doesn’t create advantages like an optimal ball-dominant player, Lonzo has a knack for building on existing advantages. He does this by seeing the whole court, making the right read, and putting the ball where it needs to go in order to keep the defense scrambling and get easy buckets. Lonzo similarly excels at moving off-the-ball, particularly in terms of relocating along the perimeter. If his man is even slightly distracted, you can count on Lonzo to find an open spot as an outlet for a pass and then make the most of that opportunity on the catch, either with his much-improved jumper or by attacking an overextended defense.
These qualities make Lonzo an ideal fit alongside a dynamic on-ball perimeter threat. I believe that adding Lillard would make Lonzo substantially more effective offensively, as it gives him more opportunities to catch the ball in favorable situations, where his skill set is most valuable.
Lonzo uses his awareness and anticipation to make plays on the defensive end of the floor as well, ranking in the top 20 in steal percentage and steals per game. He’s not as strong, versatile, or consistently locked-in as Covington—and he only grades out as slightly above average rather than a notably positive defender as a result—but I think that Lonzo and Covington in tandem could really elevate the team’s defensive intelligence and cut down on the easy looks the Pelicans allowed last year, particularly in combination with a mobile rim protector like Boucher.
As for the team’s other significant free agent, Josh Hart, I’d let him go if the offseason plays out this way. He almost certainly can’t be kept while staying under the luxury tax, and I have to think that staying under the tax is a priority for a smaller market team like New Orleans. There’s no need to renounce his rights, however, and maybe we can work out a sign-and-trade with him and a new team to grab a 2nd round pick or trade exception in return.
Starting lineup: Lillard / Lonzo / Covington / Zion / Boucher
Bench rotation: Kira Lewis, Gordon, NAW, Naji, Isaiah Jackson, Jaxson Hayes
Deep bench: Kessler Edwards, Aaron Henry + minimum-salaried vets
Two-Way: McKinley Wright
In the event that I couldn’t get Covington included in the Lillard deal, I’d bring back Hart to take his place. Either way, the roster has enough skilled, reliable wings with Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Eric Gordon, and Naji Marshall all coming off the bench that the Pelicans can experiment with smaller lineups (Zion or Covington at center) and various combinations throughout the season.
I believe that this version of the Pelicans would join Brooklyn in the top tier of NBA offenses. Lillard has led the Blazers to a top-3 Offensive Rating each of the past 3 seasons, and I’d argue that this team has more offensive firepower and top-end talent than any of those Portland rosters. Just looking at some of the most trusted all-in-one metrics, Lillard ranks as the #1 offensive player in the league by some measures (DPM/DARKO, 3-year RAPM) and no worse than #3 by others (EPM, LEBRON, RAPTOR, BPM, 1- and 5-year RAPM). Meanwhile, after just his 2nd season, Zion isn’t too far behind as an elite offensive force (#9 BPM, #12 LEBRON, #17 EPM).
When you start with the talent and inside/outside synergy of Zion and Dame and then add high-level shooters and a secondary creator/facilitator like Lonzo, it’s hard to imagine not having the league’s most potent offense or very close to it. Zion’s too quick and agile for opposing bigs and too strong for opposing forwards, and it’ll be much more hazardous to double him with all that outside shooting around him.
The defensive questions are legitimate, though for reasons I’ve largely explained, I think this team is more likely to be decent as opposed to bad on that end. Apart from the superstars, the roster is full of active help defenders and rim protectors.
Defense is also much more scheme-dependent than offense. With a mobile shot-blocker plus smart, energetic wings cutting off penetration and passing lanes, closing out on shooters, and funneling ball-handlers and slashers to spots where they’re least dangerous, I tend to think that you can overcome a subpar defender or two in the lineup. Tom Thibodeau has essentially been proving that throughout his career. Whether this group can execute such a scheme is an open question, though I think it stands a better chance of covering for Lillard on that end than the recent Portland teams.
Leave a Reply